Will Sensex cross 1 lakh, how will this prediction come true?
Looking at the current situation of the stock market, you may feel that the talk of Sensex crossing 1 lakh points is nonsense. Still, there is an estimate that how will the Sensex cross 1 lakh points by December 2025?
The downtrend in the stock market continues, the market is recovering and then breaking down again. In such a situation, if someone says that the Sensex will cross 1 lakh points, then you will feel that he is talking nonsense. But the estimates are such that by December 2025, the Sensex will cross 1 lakh points. Let's understand the whole calculation…
When the stock market started declining for the first time in October-November 2024, no one had anticipated that the Sensex would cross 1 lakh points. Still, the market gained momentum and gave a strong return of 6% in early December itself.
Looking at the stability of the macroeconomics of the country's economy and good cash flow, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley expects that the Sensex will touch 1,05,000 points by December 2025.
This estimate is from the time when Donald Trump had not taken oath as the President of America. America had not started the tariff war nor had Trump's decisions started affecting India's economy.
Donald Trump started taking rapid decisions as soon as he became the President. India is having to consider imposing various tariffs under pressure.
Discussions are also going on about giving Most Favored Nation status to America. Meanwhile, foreign investors (FPIs) have rapidly withdrawn from the stock market and the Indian stock market has touched the level of the biggest decline in 30 years in February. In the backdrop of all this, is it possible to reach 1 lakh points?
41% growth will be required
Despite the declining trend in the market, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley claims that the stock market Sensex can touch 1,05,000 points by December 2025. However, if the market has to do this, then it will have to gain about 41 percent in a year from the current level.
The brokerage firm says that the Indian stock market will be rewarded for its risk-taking ability. By December 2025, the Sensex can easily reach the level of 93,000 points.
This will be about 25 percent up from the current level. However, if the risk factor reaches a certain limit, then according to media reports quoting Morgan Stanley, the stock market is also expected to reach 70,000 points by December 2025. This will be about 6 percent below the current level.
However, Morgan Stanley's India Research Head Riddham Desai says that the market has now reached its bottom level and will prepare to rise from here. Only a global recession can keep the market down this year.
